Orcas cooperatively corral large schools of fish to the surface and stun them by hitting them with their tails. [14] IBM, Deep Blue, Icons of Progress, http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepblue/. [13] And impressive victories over humans in chess by AI programs[14] are being dwarfed by AIs ability to compete with and beat humans at exponentially more difficult strategic endeavors like the games of Go[15] and StarCraft. xref <> As a result, a rational actor should expect to cooperate. Charisma unifies people supposedly because people aim to be as successful as the leader. [52] In the context of developing an AI Coordination Regime, recognizing that two competing actors are in a state of Deadlock might drive peace-maximizing individuals to pursue de-escalation strategies that differ from other game models. This is visually represented in Table 2 with each actors preference order explicitly outlined. How does the Just War Tradition position itself in relation to both Realism and Pacifism? Because of its capacity to radically affect military and intelligence systems, AI research becomes an important consideration in national security and would unlikely be ignored by political and military leaders. Photo Credit: NATO photo by Capt. [47] look at different policy responses to arms race de-escalation and find that the model or game that underlies an arms race can affect the success of policies or strategies to mitigate or end the race. Depending on which model is present, we can get a better sense of the likelihood of cooperation or defection, which can in turn inform research and policy agendas to address this. The game is a prototype of the social contract. In the most common account of this dilemma, which is quite different from Rousseau's, two hunters must decide separately, and without the other knowing, whether to hunt a stag or a hare. If participation is not universal, they cannot surround the stag and it escapes, leaving everyone that hunted stag hungry. What is the so-called 'holy trinity' of peacekeeping? For example, one prisone r may seemingly betray the other , but without losing the other's trust. Those who play it safe will choose [26] Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, Frank Wilczek, Transcendence looks at the implications of artificial intelligence but are we taking AI seriously enough? The Indepndent, May 1, 2014, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-9313474.html. For example, if the two international actors cooperate with one another, we can expect some reduction in individual payoffs if both sides agree to distribute benefits amongst each other. Hume's second example involves two neighbors wishing to drain a meadow. Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in N-Person Stag Hunt Dilemmas (Pergamon Press: 1985). So it seems that, while we still are motivated by own self-interest, the addition of social dynamics to the two-person Stag Hunt game leads to a tendency of most people agreeing to hunt the stag. What is the key claim of the 'Liberal Democratic Peace' thesis? A persons choice to bind himself to a social contract depends entirely on his beliefs whether or not the other persons or peoples choice. > [40] Robert Jervis, Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 30, 2 (1978): 167-214. As a result, there is no conflict between self-interest and mutual benefit, and the dominant strategy of both actors would be to defect. The remainder of this subsection briefly examines each of these models and its relationship with the AI Coordination Problem. ? The remainder of this subsection looks at numerical simulations that result in each of the four models and discusses potential real-world hypotheticals these simulations might reflect. Evaluate this statement. Additionally, the feedback, discussion, resource recommendations, and inspiring work of friends, colleagues, and mentors in several time zones especially Amy Fan, Carrick Flynn, Will Hunt, Jade Leung, Matthijs Maas, Peter McIntyre, Professor Nuno Monteiro, Gabe Rissman, Thomas Weng, Baobao Zhang, and Remco Zwetsloot were vital to this paper and are profoundly appreciated. What are some good examples of coordination games? [3] Elon Musk, Twitter Post, September 4, 2017, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/904638455761612800. The familiar Prisoners Dilemma is a model that involves two actors who must decide whether to cooperate in an agreement or not. Advanced AI technologies have the potential to provide transformative social and economic benefits like preventing deaths in auto collisions,[17] drastically improving healthcare,[18] reducing poverty through economic bounty,[19] and potentially even finding solutions to some of our most menacing problems like climate change.[20]. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. As new technological developments bring us closer and closer to ASI[27] and the beneficial returns to AI become more tangible and lucrative, a race-like competition between key players to develop advanced AI will become acute with potentially severe consequences regarding safety. International Relations,

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